There is great uncertainty about Coakley’s chances of winning Ted Kennedy’s seat in the Senate.  Looking at the polls and reading up on the situation, here’s why I think the polls showing Brown ahead by substantail margin are wrong:

1.  There are many more registered democrats in MA than registered Republicans.

2.  The phone surveys rely on fixed phones.  Most of the people who will vote Democratic are young, and they tend only to have cell phones.  They probably haven’t been contacted, and chances are they will vote Democrat.

3.  Almost all registered Democrats will vote Democrat.

The main problem for Coakley are the independents, who are leaning toward Brown.  I think the Democrats will wash them out.

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